Bihirang lang mag-repost ng mga articles, pero sobrang interesting naman nito. Nung una akala nga ay joke o prank galing sa Facebook. Pero galing pala ito sa CNN. At research ng HSBC tungkol sa mga tinitignang Top Economies sa mundo sa taong 2050.
Walang duda, China talaga ang no.1 sa 2050. Asa taas ng listahan din ang US, India, Japan at Germany. Di naman kakagulat. Pero wow ang Pilipinas ay #16.
Di ko sure kung sobrang optimistic o sobrang pessimistic naman ng balitang ito. Obviously, mukhang hinihulaan ng HSBC na malaking factor ng pag-unlad ang populasyon ng bansa. Nabanggit din kasi ito sa analysis, at na-highlight pa nga ang pag-contract ng population ng Northern Europe lalo na ang mga scandinavian countries at ang impact nito sa ekomoniya.
Kung populasyon kasi ang isang basehan, baka dapat mas mataas ang Pilipinas. Kasi at the rate the population increase is going, e baka dapat Top 10. Isa pa, makakapasok ang Pilipinas sa Top 20 kung merong mala-milagrong pangyayari ang magaganap tungkol sa korupsyon at infrastructure sa bansa. So parang hinuhualaan na rin dito na aayos ang governance ng bansa. Parang imposible na makapasok ang isang bansa sa Top 20, na merong talamak na korupsyon. Sana nga mangyari ito, at sa lalong madaling panahon.
Umaasa ako na magkakatotoo nga ito. Di imposible. Kelangan sigurong magsimula sa pag-alis sa korupsyon at pasasaan ba't susunod ang tunay na pag-unlad. Sayang at medyo matanda na ko ng 2050, ang sarap sigurong mamuhay na isang citizen ng Top Economy.
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Repost from http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/12/worlds-top-economies-in-2050-will-be/
(CNN) – The global research department of HSBC has released a report predicting the rise and fall of the world’s economies in the next 40 years.
The world’s top economy in 2050 will be China, followed by the United States. No surprises there – since China’s reforms in the 1980s, economists have said it’s not a question of if, but when, China’s collective economic might will top the U.S.
But among the smaller, developing nations, there are several surprises by HSBC prognosticators:
* By 2050, the Philippines will leapfrog 27 places to become the world’s 16th largest economy.
* Peru’s economy, growing by 5.5% each year, jumping 20 places to 26th place – ahead of Iran, Colombia and Switzerland. Other strong performers will be Egypt (up 15 places to 20th), Nigeria (up nine places to 37th), Turkey (up six spots to 12th), Malaysia (up 17 to 21st) and the Ukraine (up 19 to 45th).
* Japan’s working population will contract by a world-top 37% in 2050 – yet HSBC economists predict it will still be toward the top performing economies, dropping only one spot to the 4th largest economy. India will jump ahead of Japan to 3rd on the list.
* The big loser in the next 40 years will be advanced economies in Europe, HSBC predicts, who will see their place in the economic pecking order erode as working population dwindles and developing economies climb. Only five European nations will be in the top 20, compared to eight today. Biggest drop will be felt northern Europe: Denmark to 56th ( -29), Norway to 48th ( -22), Sweden to 38th (-20) and Finland to 57th (-19).
HSBC 2050 list of top economies (change in rank from 2010)
1) China (+2)
2) U.S. (-1)
3) India (+5)
4) Japan (-2)
5) Germany (-1)
6) UK (-1)
7) Brazil (+2)
8) Mexico (+5)
9) France (-3)
10) Canada (same)
11) Italy (-4)
12) Turkey (+6)
13) S. Korea (-2)
14) Spain (-2)
15) Russia (+2)
16) Philippines (+27)
17) Indonesia (+4)
18) Australia (-2)
19) Argentina (2)
20) Egypt (+15)
21) Malaysia (+17)
22) Saudi Arabia (+1)
23) Thailand (+6)
24) Netherlands (-9)
25) Poland (-1)
26) Peru (+20)
27) Iran (+7)
28) Colombia (+12)
29) Switzerland (-9)
30) Pakistan (+14)
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